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  • January18th

    REAL ESTATE

    Going to sell the house? Don’t wait for ’spring’ in February

    The busiest season for home sales traditionally begins the day after the Super Bowl. But putting off getting the word out about your property would probably be a mistake, some experts say.

    By Mary UmbergerJanuary 10, 2010

    Reporting from Chicago – It’s nearly spring — at least that’s the case in the parallel, slightly weird universe of real estate.

    Traditionally, the “spring” home buying season, theoretically the busiest time in the marketplace, begins the day after the Super Bowl. Why this is so has never been clear, but it probably has something to do with finally being able to pry spouses off the couch to tour houses.

    This year, “spring” arrives later than usual: The big game is Feb. 7.

    But if you’re thinking of selling, waiting to list until the bowl festivities have passed probably is a mistake in the current market, according to some experts.

    If you’re new to the selling game or haven’t sold a house in years, here are a few thoughts:

    * Think about planting that “for sale” sign in the yard before your neighbor gets around to doing the same thing.

    “We’re going to see a lot of property coming on the market,” said James Kinney, vice president of luxury home sales for Chicago-based Baird & Warner Real Estate. “We’re going to see everything that people took off the market in the fall, knowing they were going to be back in the spring.”

    Plus there will be genuinely new listings in addition to the continuing cascade of foreclosures and short sales, he said.

    * Don’t be surprised if, in determining an asking price, listing agents emphasize how much the competition is asking, rather than relying solely on data for recently sold homes.

    Agents have always at least considered what else is on the market in setting an asking price, said Jim Merrion, regional director of Re/Max Northern Illinois.

    “Now there’s more weight being placed on the current inventory, because in many cases it’s pushing prices to lower levels,” Merrion said. “I don’t know if it’s the effect of HGTV shows or what, but now we’re seeing agents taking sellers right into active listings” to get a true comparison of what they’re up against. “That never used to happen.”

    Still, there’s a danger in relying too much on what the guy down the street is asking.

    “An awful lot of listings are wrongly priced,” Kinney said. “If people use those as a guidepost, they could get into trouble. Do a combination of historical data and looking at who you’re competing against, once you’ve determined whether they’re valid prices.”

    * And then there’s the thorniest issue: Most people have inflated notions of their home’s value in this boom-gone-bust market.

    Experimenting with trying to net a price that’s rooted in the past can taint a house as an “old” listing, Kinney said.

    “If you’re asking a price commensurate with or higher than prices achieved in 2006 and 2007, you’re incorrectly priced,” he said.

    Umberger writes for the Chicago Tribune.

    Copyright © 2010, The Los Angeles Times

  • January18th


    HOUSING

    Signs of life in the home-building industry

    A large-scale development in Irvine and profits posted by some builders bring hope for a turnaround, but the industry’s outlook remains fragile.

    Home builders
    Construction workers build homes at Irvine Co.’s Woodbury development in Irvine. Six builders, including KB Home and Lennar Corp., are putting up 685 houses and town homes on the company’s work sites. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times / January 11, 2010)

    By Alejandro LazoJanuary 13, 2010
    A construction site in Irvine is alive with the sound of the boom years.

    Workers hammering fresh wood beams shout orders at each other in Spanish. Diesel trucks rumble through newly paved subdivisions. Men with scrolls of construction plans tucked under their arms bark instructions into mobile phones.

    The cacophony emanating from the Irvine Co.’s newest project — 685 houses and town homes in the company’s Woodbury and Woodbury East developments — is rare these days. To get the project off the ground, Irvine Co., which typically sells land to builders, is financing the project itself after enlisting six builders to put up the homes for a fee.

    “All of these people were probably unemployed or underemployed,” Thomas G. Veal, Irvine Co.’s vice president for residential marketing, said as he stood on a stack of plywood surveying one of the company’s work sites. “It’s our own little stimulus program.”

    The work belies a building industry that is still reeling from the housing crash. New homes face competition from steeply discounted foreclosure properties, and a high jobless rate keeps many potential buyers on the sidelines.

    Few experts predict that other developers and builders will begin similar such risky, large-scale projects this year. Nevertheless, signs are emerging that the residential construction industry could be starting a tentative turnaround.

    On Tuesday, Los Angeles building giant KB Home, one of the six builders putting up homes at Irvine Co.’s site, reported a fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $100.7 million, or $1.31 a share, benefiting from new tax laws. Miami builder Lennar Corp., which is also constructing homes for the Irvine Co., last week posted fourth-quarter net income of $35.6 million, or 19 cents a share. It was the first time either builder was in the black since the housing market collapsed in 2007, though KB Home executives predicted in a conference call Tuesday that they wouldn’t be profitable for the first quarter of 2010.

    Jeffrey Mezger, chief executive of KB Home, said although the company’s performance in the three months ended Nov. 30 was heartening, the outlook for the home-building industry was rocky.

    “There are indications that housing market conditions may be stabilizing in some regions, reflecting, among other things, relatively high levels of affordability,” Mezger said in a statement. “This is tempered, however, and could ultimately be undermined by persistent economic weakness and unemployment, changes in federal government monetary and fiscal policies and programs, and by the impact of rising foreclosures and mortgage loan delinquencies.”

    Real estate has traditionally brought the U.S. economy out of recession, but the housing bubble of the last decade was so large and the subsequent decline so deep that the malaise probably will take years to shake off. The best many experts hope for is that housing won’t drop again and drag the economy into a double-dip recession.

    There have been some recent signs of improvement. Residential investment increased 18.9% in the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis compared with the prior quarter, according to figures from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The third-quarter lift was the first increase in residential investment since the fourth quarter of 2005 and helped the overall U.S. economy grow at a revised rate of 2.2%, the government said last month.

    Yet many of the other indicators remain mixed.

    New-home sales in November plunged 11.3%, a sign of just how dependent the fragile housing recovery has become on government support. The drop reflected uncertainty over a first-time home-buyer tax credit initially set to expire Nov. 30. Federal lawmakers in November extended the credit through April and expanded it to include some buyers who already own a house, but the extension didn’t come in time to entice purchasers to enter into new-home contracts in November.

    Also, builder confidence in the home construction market receded in December to its lowest level since June, according to a closely watched housing market index from the National Assn. of Homebuilders. Nevertheless, builders broke ground on new residences at a faster clip in November than in October, up 8.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000 units.

    “It’s a long, slow recovery,” said Bernard Markstein, a senior economist with the builders group.

    Another sign of optimism: Both KB Home and Lennar are buying land again. Lennar executives, in their conference call last week, also said they were reducing some of the incentives they had offered buyers as sales pick up in some markets.

    To compete with scaled-back consumer sentiment, KB Home launched a new design of smaller, more affordable homes in March that it called its Open Series. In KB Home’s conference call with analysts Tuesday, Mezger said the company would continue to build homes made to order — that is, with buyers lined up — but added that it was considering putting up some partially built houses in some select communities. That would speed up the construction process and potentially allow more consumers to take advantage of the home-buyer tax credit before its April expiration, he said.

    Mezger also told analysts the company was increasing prices where it could. “It’s the same product and you push a thousand here and thousand there and get what you can,” he said. Home prices and sales picked up steadily during the second half of 2009 in Southern California, and some economists have said the worst is over. Yet whether the nascent recovery will translate into wide-scale construction in the region remains doubtful.

    “Economically, we don’t need any more new homes,” said John Burns, an independent Irvine economist who follows home builders.

    Irvine, in particular, is a unique market. In the master-planned community designed by the Irvine Co., jobs are steady and the school system is highly rated — and real estate there remains strong. The company is hoping that when it begins to sell homes in the project, called the 2010 New Home Collection, at the end of this month, its gamble will pay off.

    “The goal is to go meet what we consider the next market for new-home buying,” said Daniel Young, president of Irvine Co. Community Development. “We believe the marketplace for homes has sufficiently cleared and that people want to have a choice of either a resale home or a new home.”

    “All of the data suggests our timing is just right.”

    alejandro.lazo@latimes.com

    Copyright © 2010, The Los Angeles Times

  • December29th

    The economy grew 2.2 percent in the third quarter. The U.S. Commerce Department had previously estimated a 2.8 percent growth rate. Officials attributed the discrepancy to consumer caution, saying that consumers simply didn’t spend as much.
    Economy Improving in 4th Quarter
    Many analysts still believe the economy is likely to improve in the current quarter, growing at an estimated 4 percent, or perhaps, even 5 percent. Fourth quarter results will be released Jan. 29.

    Companies stocking depleted inventories will drive fourth-quarter growth, but the results will continue to reflect consumer caution. “We expect a better performance in the fourth quarter, but the core problems for the economy – bust banks and a massively overleveraged consumer – have not gone away,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

    Source: Associated Press, Jeannine Aversa (12/22/2009)

  • December29th

    Wells Fargo & Co. economists wrote in a note to clients last week, “The calculus of home buying and finance has changed,” summing up succinctly something that is troubling housing experts all over the country.

    Housing researcher Global Insight recently released a study of U.S. housing prices that points to the magnitude of the collapse of values.

    Nationwide, Global found housing values were about 10 percent undervalued, based on a model that examines interest rates, household incomes, population, and historical price patterns. That’s a modest number compared to metro areas hardest hit by the housing recession.

    In Fort Lauderdale, Fla., Global calculated that housing prices were 24 percent undervalued as of the third quarter of 2009. Three years ago, it said the area was 44 percent overvalued. Global calculates that Las Vegas is now undervalued by 41 percent compared to being 33 percent overvalued in 2006.

    The trillion-dollar question is: When will things turn around? As long as there is high unemployment and tight credit, many experts believe it won’t be anytime soon.

    Source: Reuters News, Emily Kaiser (12/20/2009)

  • December29th

    Home prices in 45 of the largest housing markets are expected to fall another 4.2 percent before they hit bottom in March, according to First American CoreLogic’s LoanPerformance Home Price Index.

    By October 2010, prices are expected to be heading upward again by about 1 percent compared to 2009.

    The report warned that this progress could be jeopardized by an increasingly large “shadow inventory” of homes owned by banks but not yet on the market. The problem is particularly acute in Michigan and Ohio cities, the report said. It projected a 12.7 percent further decline in values in Detroit, an 11.4 percent decline in most of the rest of southeast Michigan, and a 6.3 percent fall in Cleveland.

    The report expects the strongest recoveries next year in California cities. These include:

    San Francisco, up 5.7 percent
    Los Angeles, 5 percent
    San Diego, 4.7 percent
    Sacramento, 4.6 percent

    Source: Inman News (12/21/2009)